Oxford Analytica – textul raportului Martie 11, 2010Posted by atitudini in Politica in Romania.
Tags: amenintari, Basescu, democratie, Geoana, modelul Putin, oxford analytica, parlament, raportul oxford analytica, Romania, senat, suspendarea lui Geoana, textul raportului Oxford Analytica
Din sursa „Rational Idealist„, pe blogul Lilick Auftakt, a apărut textul de mai jos. Sursa spune că este raportul Oxford Analytica citat întâi de Geoană, apoi de Ponta şi preluat de restul mass-media. La o primă privire, pare să fie textul original. Se potriveste inclusiv la numărul de cuvinte, aşa că are „parfum de credibilitate” cum spun (spuneau) Caţavencii.
Political games distract minds from economy
- Since the constitution bars Basescu from seeking re-election in 2014 when his current mandate expires, he can afford to be magnanimous.
- Since his December re-election was by the tiniest of majorities (50.33% of votes cast), Basescu had additional reasons to adopt a more inclusive approach.
- the creation of a political system in which the president is the only important player;
- reducing parliament to the role of an enabler of presidential powers; and
- replacing the old oligarchs with former communist links with rich businessmen pliant to his authority.
- Constitutional reform. The constitution is widely admitted to be seriously flawed. The division of powers between parliament’s two chambers – the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies – is still unclear, despite a constitutional amendment introduced in 2003. Basescu’s solution is outright abolition of the Senate and reducing the seats in the Chamber of Deputies. In a referendum held last year, the electorate approved the president’s proposals. However, its results are not binding; parliament now has to enact constitutional reforms. Basescu is trying to unseat Mircea Geoana as Senate speaker in the hope of speeding his project along, despite the fact that a majority of legislators are still against his proposals.
- Electoral reform. The president had already successfully introduced a reform of the electoral system, doing away with an arrangement whereby deputies were elected by proportional representation from party lists, and replacing it with a first-past-the-post system of constituencies similar to the United Kingdom’s. In theory, this strengthens legislators’ personal accountability, but it also leaves deputies less beholden to party discipline.
- Promoting party break-ups. Basescu has realised that his previously preferred method of sponsoring the merger of other political forces into his own party is no longer likely to work. The PSD opposition has just elected Victor Ponta, a young politician with no corrupt links, as its new leader; the party’s popularity stands at 32% according to recent opinion polls, a jump of 6 percentage points in two weeks. The PNL is also steadfast in its opposition to the president.
- Splitting opposition. Instead, Basescu is now concentrating on promoting splits among his opponents. Late last month, a group of senators and deputies belonging to the opposition PSD suddenly declared themselves independents; they are about to form a new, supposedly left-wing formation, to be led by Defence Minister Gabriel Oprea, who has been groomed for this role by the president. The potential removal of Geoana, who stood against Basescu in the presidential election, is also intended to promote further splits among the ranks of the opposition.
- Political volatility. Although the country’s opposition parties are dispirited, power remains too dispersed. Basescu’s opponents are also resourceful. Teodor Melescanu, a former foreign minister and PSD member, has just announced that he wishes to fill a vacancy on the country’s Constitutional Court, which is appointed by parliament. This is an indication that the constitutional games that Basescu is playing can also be played against him.
- Economic woes. While the political battle continues, the economy continues to suffer (see ROMANIA: Crisis reveals weak basis for recent growth – October 14, 2009). GDP fell by 7.1% in 2009, and government debt is rising fast: it grew by 33.0% last year alone. To make matters worse, most of this debt is short-term. Over the weekend, Basescu publicly raised the possibility that Romania might seek a fresh loan, on top of the 20 billion euro (27 billion dollar) credit line provided by the IMF and the EU. This was swiftly denied by the Romanian government. Nonetheless, an estimated 30 billion euros of debt must be repaid by the year-end, and tax receipts cannot cover the anticipated shortfall. Therefore, it is highly likely that the economy will soon return to centre stage of Romania’s political life.